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Your classifier has zero calibration error but routes every ticket identically. Is it useful?

Diagnose a constant predictor that looks perfect on a calibration chart, then compare probability quality, routing cost and capacity using a supplied synthetic packet.

Updated Nov 2026 · Grounded in real Forward Deployed Engineer interview loops and written to a senior-engineer editorial bar.

Diagnose a constant predictor that looks perfect on a calibration chart, then compare probability quality, routing cost and capacity using a supplied synthetic packet.

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FEDITOR'S NOTE

An original measurement exercise. Look for separate reasoning about calibration, resolution and the action policy; neither a low ECE nor a better Brier score establishes production utility.

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