high stakes

In high-stakes domains a wrong answer is worse than no answer, but a system that always abstains is useless. The selective-prediction design, the layered abstention triggers, and the two metrics that govern the tradeoff.

Two failure modes, one architecture. Why no single guardrail holds, the defense-in-depth layers that assume the model will be broken, and the design rule that limits the blast radius when prompt filters inevitably fail.

Calibrated abstention is a system property, not a prompt line. Learn the four abstention signals, the precision-at-coverage framing, and why 'just tell it to say I don't know' fails the interview.

When a model auto-approves loans or routes patients, the probability is the product, not a dashboard number. The calibration-plus-abstention design that lets a customer trust an automated decision, and the subgroup trap that gets it pulled in audit.